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	<title>Kellblog &#187; VentureBeat</title>
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		<title>Eight Predictions for 2010: Guest Post for VentureBeat</title>
		<link>http://kellblog.com/2009/12/30/eight-predictions-for-2010-guest-post-for-venturebeat/</link>
		<comments>http://kellblog.com/2009/12/30/eight-predictions-for-2010-guest-post-for-venturebeat/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2009 18:51:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave Kellogg</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Future]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VentureBeat]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Following is the full text of a guest submission I did for the Enterpreneur Corner section of VentureBeat. Given the tumultuous events of 2009, it’s easy to forget the world didn’t come to a standstill. Life continued and Silicon Valley &#8230; <a href="http://kellblog.com/2009/12/30/eight-predictions-for-2010-guest-post-for-venturebeat/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a><img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=kellblog.com&#038;blog=11070789&#038;post=4515&#038;subd=davidkellogg&#038;ref=&#038;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Following is the full text of a <a href="http://entrepreneur.venturebeat.com/2009/12/29/eight-trends-to-look-for-in-2010/">guest submission</a> I did for the <a href="http://entrepreneur.venturebeat.com/">Enterpreneur Corner</a> section of <a href="http://venturebeat.com/">VentureBeat</a>.</p>
<p>Given the tumultuous events of 2009, it’s easy to forget the world didn’t come to a standstill.  Life continued and Silicon Valley kept innovating.  Here are my predictions on eight trends that will surface next year:</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">Corporations deploy technology for advantage, not cost.</span></p>
<p>As the economy recovers, organizations will for the first time in nearly a decade, look to information technology as a means of gaining competitive advantage as opposed to a means for simply reducing cost.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">Social networking divides.</span></p>
<p>People settle into a pattern of using different social networking platforms for different purposes.</p>
<p>The notion of a single <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_network">social graph</a> for work, personal, and other activities separated only by the friend-type of the linkages is dead.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.facebook.com/">Facebook</a>, assuming they don’t continue to make <a href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/12/09/facebook-privacy/">heavy-handed privacy mistakes</a>, ends up owning friends. <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/">LinkedIn</a> owns business colleagues, but has to share status’ing with <a href="http://twitter.com/">Twitter</a>.  Boutique networks own other activities, perhaps with <a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/125/nings-infinite-ambition.html">Ning</a> as the underlying platform across those networks where users don’t mind and/or desire a common profile.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">But social network fatigue sets in.</span></p>
<p>While teens will continue to use social networks as telephones, social networking amongst the middle-aged and working crowd will lose of its luster. Despite Facebook succeeding where <a href="http://www.classmates.com/">Classmates</a> failed, the novelty of reconnecting with long-lost high school friends will fade as will the “I’m at Safeway in the meat department” status message.</p>
<p>In some ways, social networks settle back more into the <a href="http://www.plaxo.com/">Plaxo</a> vision of permanently connected address books than the hipper vision of a constant communication platform.  Twitter suffers and it’s not just from the <a href="http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/12/17/twitter-reportedly-hacked-by-iranian-cyber-army/">Iranian Cyber Army</a>.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">Cloud computing hype peaks.</span></p>
<p>Passing Gartner’s “<a href="http://www.gartner.com/pages/story.php.id.8795.s.8.jsp">peak of inflated expectations</a>,” Cloud Computing begins to dive into the “trough of disillusionment.”</p>
<p>The types of cloud (e.g, public, private, virtual private) begin to stabilize as does the number of as-a-service acronyms.</p>
<p>Strategic cloud consultancies like <a href="http://www.appirio.com/">Appiro</a> and cloud interconnection companies like <a href="http://www.castiron.com/">CastIron</a> begin to clean up as pragmatic customers seek to define sensible cloud strategies that leverage the best of many options and combine them.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">The database market siege builds.</span></p>
<p>The attack against the once-sleepy $15B market controlled by Oracle, IBM, and Microsoft will continue to build. While <a href="http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2009/12/what_do_oracles.html">Oracle will reluctantly honor its MySQL promises</a> for the European Union, <a href="http://www.postgresql.org/">Postgres</a> will gain momentum among those worried about MySQL’s  mid-term future.</p>
<p>Specialist database systems from vendors like <a href="http://www.asterdata.com/">Aster Data</a>, <a href="http://www.marklogic.com/">Mark Logic</a>, and <a href="http://www.streambase.com/">Streambase </a>will continue to eat the edges of the market while new database-as-a-service cloud offerings will commoditize the core.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NoSQL">NoSQL movement</a> will continue to gather steam, leveraging <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadoop">Hadoop</a> as a “un-database” for those frustrated with either classic relational database technology or high oligopolistic pricing practices.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">Google shows signs of weakness in search.</span></p>
<p>As spammers gain ground in the cat-and-mouse game of search engine optimization, it will continue to get harder and harder to, for example, find a dishwasher on Google.</p>
<p>With substantial investment, <a href="http://venturebeat.com/2009/12/02/microsoft-buffs-up-bing-with-image-intensive-search-tools-mobile-ui-twitter-maps/">some impressive technology</a>, and a good deal of persistence, Microsoft will do some damage to Google with <a href="http://www.bing.com/">Bing</a>.</p>
<p>While a long way from death by-a-thousand-cuts, the first hundred cuts or so will come from Bing, “<a href="http://www.decisionengine.com/Default.html">decision engines,</a>”such as machine-learning upstart <a href="http://www.hunch.com/">Hunch</a>, and human-powered “answer engines” like <a href="http://www.mahalo.com/">Mahalo</a> or <a href="http://askville.amazon.com/">AskVille</a> (formerly, AnswerVille) from Amazon.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">The XML silent revolution continues.</span></p>
<p>Without a shot fired, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XML">XML</a> take over as the principal underlying file format both within the enterprise and across the Internet.</p>
<p>As the latest suites from Microsoft, Adobe and others continue to penetrate the market, more and more information will, often unknowingly, be stored in an XML format.</p>
<p>New industry standards such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XBRL">XBRL</a> for financial reporting and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HL7">HL7</a> for health records are driving the need for information infrastructures that mange both traditional data and this reservoir of XML-based unstructured content.</p>
<p>Yes, <a href="http://www.blogger.com/profile/12536238434041094837">this is good for my company</a> but the dynamic opens the door to a range of tools and services to help companies extract greater value from data.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">Mobility takes off.</span></p>
<p>With the combination of new devices, higher-speed mobile networks and new location-aware technology, mobile applications continue their ascent.</p>
<p>Augmented reality goes mainstream by combining the camera, the screen, and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gps">GPS</a> in the devices turning one’s mobile phone into not only a communication and web surfing device but also a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head-up_display">head’s up display</a> to guide you through life.</p>
<p>Last year around this time I wrote about e-books taking off thanks to the Kindle. Now, Sony and Barnes and Noble as well as Amazon have stoked demand into the mainstream.</p>
<p>Regardless of how these 2010 predictions play out, we know one thing with certainty—</p>
<p>The tech industry will always bring challenges to the <span style="font-style:italic;">status quo</span>.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">About the Author, Dave Kellogg</span></p>
<p>Dave Kellogg is CEO of Mark Logic, an information infrastructure software company serving industries such as media, government, financial services and healthcare to name a few. Prior to Mark Logic, he was senior vice president of marketing at Business Objects. Dave blogs at http://marklogic.blogspot.com/ covering topics ranging from venture capital to the business of software.</p>
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