Great Marketing Machines Are Like Costco

I had a lightbulb moment in the car yesterday listening to the Revenue Vitals podcast. It wasn’t a flash of insight so much as a flash of synthesis. I’ve been driving a lot lately, so I also had time to listen to the amazing Acquired podcast, specifically the three-hour episode on Costco. In fact, since I was driving down from Oregon and I loved the material, I listened to it twice.

I won’t attempt to summarize the episode, but my God I love Costco. From its complex and intertwined origins to its values-driven culture to its relentless — and I mean relentless — focus on execution, it’s an operations dream. Set a margin target and then operate as efficiently as humanly possible in order to deliver the lowest prices to your customers. When you get savings, don’t increase the margins, decrease the prices. A small margin on a huge volume is still a huge amount of profit. Goosebumps.

And all of this without even mentioning the hot dog. Go take a long drive and listen to the episode. You’ll love it.

My favorite part of the episode is where they discuss what makes Costco work. In business, we love stories with magic wands. Strategists loves cases where, with enough analysis and thought, you identify one key lever that changes everything. Heck, I think I’m a strategist and I love those stories, too. But the answer to every question in business isn’t always about one thing.

Searching for Costco’s one thing is as fruitful as searching for El Dorado. There isn’t one. It doesn’t exist. Instead, there are 50 little things. That all work together. Excerpt:

I want to say a Jim Sinegal quote, “This isn’t a tricky business. We just tried to sell high quality merchandise at a lower cost than everybody else.” I think it’s hilariously farcical. He’s both right and so cheeky. This is an extremely tricky business. […] We’ve talked about a bunch of it in this episode. It’s the 50 little things that they do that all synchronize with each other that makes it work. You don’t do one of those and it falls apart.

That was a few weeks ago. Yesterday, I was in the car again, listening to the Revenue Vitals episode with Alice de Courcy from Cognism discussing how to scale a demand engine. And a light bulb goes off. The trigger was this conversation with host Chris Walker around minute 25. Quoting Chris:

I seriously want to double click on the point that these non-sexy, quote-unquote boring things are typically the things sitting right in front of your face that will drive the highest impact without a lot of money. I collect feedback after we complete engagements and customers will sometimes say, “I wish you brought a lot more innovative, sexy ideas,” and I say, “well, I brought you the three ideas that are sitting right in front of your face that are going to double your pipeline.”

So I think there’s a balance here between new, sexy things […] and how are we going to convert our website demos by 2% more each year so we can get $6M in additional revenue. The things that are sexy [to me] are the things that drive results.

Great marketing machines are like Costco. There is no magic wand. There is no secret lever. It’s about 50 little things, all working together. And that’s one reason why people have trouble understanding them. This may be obvious, but I’d never previously seen it so clearly. CMOs show the funnel slide in board meetings with stages and conversion rates. But no one really understands the machine. They ask a few random questions, usually about channels. The inevitable attribution conversation follows. You can almost feel them searching for the one thing. (Or the one cock up.) But in this case, there isn’t one.

Alice calls this concept loops. I think of it as concentric circles. You build marketing programs out from a core of ongoing, proven programs to the edges of new, experimental campaigns. That’s why when I present marketing, I like to discuss high-level concepts that people can easily understand. Here are the three big themes for the quarter. Here’s our demandgen machine, shown in concentric circles of provenness. And here’s what it’s producing, ending always with the number of opportunities it produced and at what cost for each.

You want to dive into the machine? We can do that — I love the machine — but that’s like asking what makes Costco work. Let’s schedule a three-hour meeting to discuss it — and I’m not stonewalling here. But if you want to jump into the machine to try and help optimize cost/oppty (which is usually the intent), then you need to understand how it works. Or more cheekily, that’s why you pay me. But if you’re interested, really interested, then let’s jump in.

For more on the notion of a marketing machine and how to build one, see this deck or watch this video. And a quick thank you and shout out to former dbt Labs CMO Janessa Lantz for her kind words on that deck and on Kellblog in general.

My Most Recent Appearance on 20VC with Harry Stebbings

Just a quick post to highlight my third and most recent appearance on 20VC with the amazing Harry Stebbings (Spotify, YouTube).

It is always, always a pleasure to speak with Harry. He’s such an effective interviewer that you quickly get into detail and stories that others miss. So you end up with very rich content, which in this case lasts significantly longer than 20 minutes. (More like 72, but who’s counting?)

In this episode we hit on a wide range of topics including:

  • The metrics that matter in SaaS today
  • Why CAC Payback is flawed and CAC ratio is better
  • Why you need to hire sales reps three-at-a-time (aka, modulo 3)
  • How to forecast in 2024 and in general (keyword: triangulate)
  • The biggest mistakes made in forecasting, and how sales management practices can confound the forecasting process
  • Why renewals are harder than ever to get (but alas easier to forecast)
  • What all this means for Customer Success (both the disicpline and the department)

I’ve embedded the video of the episode below. I hope you can make time to watch or listen to it. And thanks again to Harry for having me.

Join Me for a Chat with Nick Mehta: How To Prevent Your Customer Success Team from Getting the Axe

Just a quick post to invite people to join a chat that I’m having with my old friend Nick Mehta from GainSight in just a few days — on Thursday, February 22nd at 1:00 PM Pacific time — entitled How to Prevent Your Customer Success Team from Getting the Axe.

The event came as a result of Nick reading this Kellblog post, The One Question to Ask Before You Blow Up Your Customer Success Team, which led to a conversation about it. At some point Nick asked, wouldn’t this be an interesting conversation for everyone? And thus, the event was born.

Expect it to be informal (no slides), conversational, and interactive because I know Nick wants to get questions from the crowd. More than anything, expect us to simultaneously address a serious and timely topic for C-level and Customer Success leaders, and to nevertheless have some fun while doing it.

I hope to see you there!

Startup Century: A New Book on Technology Policy by Balderton’s James Wise

Today is the US launch of Startup Century, a new (and debut) book by Balderton partner James Wise. The book’s subtitle provides a great clue to its content: why we’re all becoming entrepreneurs — and how to make it work for everyone.

This is neither a how-to book on building startups nor self-interested VC propaganda designed to foster more startup activity. More than anything, I’d say it’s a public policy book that includes a strong dose of technology history. The book is designed to help us first extrapolate possible future scenarios, and then select policies that drive us towards the more positive outcomes on the spectrum. The book doesn’t argue that society should trend towards entrepreneurialism, it presents a matter-of-fact case that it is doing so inexorably, for both better and worse. It then asks a series of “so what should we do about that” questions that take us into public policy.

Everyday-Everyone Entrepreneurship

The world envisioned is one of everyday-everyone entrepreneurship, which James defines as a state where people:

  • Have meaningful ownership of what they produce.
  • Earn in a proportional way to their (or their product’s) success.
  • Can be self-directed, at least most of the time.
  • Can choose how to solve a problem, and with whom to work to solve it.

What I like best about the book is that it doesn’t tap dance around difficult questions of societal structure and power, both past and future. You cannot discuss this kind of material without considering winners and losers. While the book certainly has an optimistic bent, it also provokes the reader to consider the alternatives. Excerpt:

“[Bloodworth’s] conclusion [in Hired] was that many of the rights and benefits the labor movements and trade unions had won, over several generations — from sick pay and holidays to maternity and paternity leave, pensions, and safe, civilized, working conditions — had been undermined, not by political opposition but by technological innovation and and ruthlessly demanding business models.”

For example, income security seems out the window in the eat-what-you-kill world of individual entrepreneurship. But was it already out the window anyway with the steady erosion of the social contract between employer and employee? And to the public policy angle, what should we, as a society, do about it? 

Or, more topically, will AI create more jobs than it displaces — as James suggests and has been the historical pattern with new, disruptive technologies? Or will we eventually find ourselves in some more dystopian Logan’s Run type scenario?

After an in-depth review of several policy areas, the book concludes with An Entrepreneur’s Manifesto that offers sixteen specific policy suggestions grouped into three areas: find work, fair work, and fulfilling work. You can learn more about the manifesto by watching this lecture.

For more information on the book, you can read this Publisher’s Weekly review, peruse this Q&A with James, or even chat with the book.

Having a nice chat with the book itself.

My Overall Take

Overall, Startup Century is a worthy read — the history lessons alone are worth the price of admission. The public policy is less my passion, but the book nevertheless poses important policy questions and considers them in depth and with thoughtfulness that I have not previously encountered. 

As James notes, “in his writings on capitalism, […] Schumpeter both championed capitalism and predicted its demise, […] warning that capitalism would inevitably morph into cronyism and give rise to oligopolies.” 

Let us hope that everyday-everyone entrepreneurship can help prevent that demise and that we can collectively develop answers to James’ questions that lead us together, and successfully, into the startup century.

A Discussion of My 2024 Predictions on the AI and The Future of Work Podcast

Just a quick episode to highlight my recent appearance on Dan Turchin‘s AI and the Future Work podcast. In the episode, we discuss my 2024 predictions both in general and with an unsurprising spin towards AI and the future of work. I think this is our third year running in getting together to discuss my predictions.

If you don’t know Dan’s podcast, you should. It’s one of the longest running founder/CEO podcasts in Silicon Valley with approximately 300 total episodes, an overall 4.9 rating, and some great reviews including this one from none other than Ben Horowitz: ”I love this podcast. Great guests and great discussions about AI, ethics, technology, and entrepreneurship.”

Guests of note in the past year have included Arvind Jain (Glean), May Habib (Writer), Robert Plotkin (AI legal expert), Vijay Tella (Workato), Dr. John Boudreau (Cornell), Tom Wheeler (former FCC chair), Wade Foster (Zapier), and Meredith Broussard (NYU). 

In our discussion, Dan and I hit many topics, including:

  • My self-ratings on my 2023 predictions, including discussion of which are cycles, extrapolations, and pendulums.
  • A deeper dive on the “retain is the new add” 2023 prediction, looking at expansion ARR as a percent of new ARR as proof.
  • The post-truth world and AI’s impact on it through synthetically-generated content, including discussion on SEO and generative AI optimization.
  • History and future of algorithmically-generated feeds versus manual curation and how I sometimes find myself missing RSS.
  • Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and how its two key abilities (sourcing plus augmenting) help make generative AI much more appropriate for the enterprise.
  • AI climbing the proverbial hype cycle, including funding rounds and their structure; new value-based pricing and how much of AI-created value will be captured by vendors versus customers.
  • Fair use and large-language models (e.g., the New York Times complaint), including discussion of virtual SaaS expert pools such as SaaS GPT Lab.
  • Battery’s now somewhat famous slide on GTM efficiency, arguing that a sales team of 75 people armed with AI tools can support the same quota as a 110-person team without. Be ready for the board meeting where they ask about this slide!
  • The odds of both Dan and I attending the upcoming rumored performances of Dead & Company at The Sphere in Las Vegas.

I hope you make some time to listen to the episode. And thanks, Dan, for having me.