Is Salesforce / Siebel a Classic Disruption Case?

Like many others, I have often used Salesforce / Siebel as a classic example of Innovator’s Dilemma style disruption.  Several months ago, in response to this article about Host Analytics, I received a friendly note from former Siebel exec and now venture capitalist Bruce Cleveland saying roughly:  “nice PR piece, but the Salesforce / Siebel disruption story is a misconception.”

So I was happy the other day to see that Bruce wrote up his thoughts in a Fortune article, Lessons from the Death of a Tech Giant.  In addition, he posted some supplemental thoughts in a blog post Siebel vs. Salesforce:  Lessons from the Death of  a Tech Giant.

Since the premise for the article was Bruce gathering his thoughts for a guest-lecture at INSEAD, I thought — rather than weighing in with my own commentary — I’d ask a series of study guide style questions that MBA students pondering this example should consider:

  • What is disruption?  Given Bruce’s statement of the case, do you view Siebel as a victim or disruptive innovation or a weakening macro environment?
  • Are the effects of disruptive innovation on the disruptee always felt directly or are they indirect?  (e.g., directly might mean losing specific deals as opposed to indirect where a general stall occurs)
  • What does it feel like to be an executive at a disruptee?  Do you necessarily know you are being disrupted?  How could you separate out what whether you are stalling due to the macro environment or a disruptive innovator?
  • What should you do when you are being disrupted?  (Remember the definition of “dilemma” — two options and both are bad.)
  • While not in the article, according to friends I have who worked at Siebel, management could be quoted in this timeframe as saying “Now is the time to be more Siebel than we’ve ever been” (as opposed to emulating Salesforce).  Comment.
  • What should Siebel have done differently?  Was the over-reliance on call center revenue making them highly exposed to a downturn in a few verticals?  How could they have diversified using either SFA or analytics as the backbone?
  • What should Siebel have done about the low-end disruption from Salesforce?  Recall that in 2003 Siebel launched Siebel CRM On Demand as an attempted blocking strategy in the mid-market and acquired UpShot as a blocker for SMB.  How could Siebel have leveraged these assets to achieve a better outcome?
  • To what extent should external environment variables be factored in or out when analyzing disruption?  Are they truly external or an integral part of the situation?
  • To what extent do you believe that Oracle’s acquisition of Siebel left Salesforce unopposed for 8 years?  To what extent was that true in the other categories in which Oracle made large acquisitions (e.g., HCM, middleware)?
  • After hearing both sides of the argument, to what extent do you believe the reality of the case is “Salesforce David slaying Siebel Goliath” versus “Siebel getting caught over-exposed to a macro downturn, selling to Oracle and giving the CRM market to Salesforce?”   In effect, “they didn’t kill us; we killed ourselves.”

I deliberately will offer no answers here.  As an old friend of mine says, “there are three sides to every story:  yours, mine, and what really happened.”  Real learning happens when you try understand all three.

10 Things Never To Do at a Business Dinner

Business travelers spent $260B in 2012 with food services being the #1 source of expense.  Salespeople love dinners with customers and prospects. Marketers love networking dinners.  We have customer advisory board dinners, pre-board dinners, awards dinners, relationship-building dinners, team dinners, customer appreciation dinners, partner summit dinners, project completion dinners, analyst dinners, investor dinners, … the list goes on and on.

Because business dinners can be so powerful, I am a huge fan of them as a marketing tool.  However, I’ve also been a part of many “dining accidents” over the years — the most infamous being the “white burgundy and stone crab incident” at Estiatorio Milos — almost invariably due to a combination of lack of focus on the business goals of the meal, lack of pragmatism, and lack of adaptation to changing circumstances.

As a result of these experiences, I have composed this list of 10 things never to do at a business dinner.

10.  Lack clear goals.  Whether we’re organizing a 1-1 meal for the CEO and a key customer or a 56-person customer appreciation dinner, everyone on the team should understand the goals for the meal.  Every member of the team should understand why they are there and what they are supposed to do.

9.  Eat in a noisy restaurant.  A universal purpose of a business dinner is for people to get know each other.  That is not going to happen when it’s loud, especially if your guests are a bit older.  Some restaurants are just incredibly noisy (e.g., Wolfgang’s on Park Avenue with a parabolic tile ceiling).  Sometimes private rooms can be quite loud as well, especially if they are not really cut off from the main room.  Avoid live music at all costs.  Avoid low ceilings.  Beware converted bank vaults and train stations.  I’ve seen more business dinners die on this hill than any other.  Fun or hip doesn’t matter if people can’t hear each other.

8.  Have tables bigger than 8.  If people are going to get acquainted, they need both a quiet environment and a table small enough so everyone can hear everyone else.  One friend has a rule that if you want one conversation at a table, then you should limit table size to six.   I think you can go up to 8, provided your team members know there is supposed to be one conversation.  Avoid rectangular tables which greatly limit the number of people with whom one can speak.

7.  Bring too many people.  One advantage of clear goals is that they help in deciding the guest list.  If the goal is to recognize the hard work of a 24-person team, great:  go get 3 tables of 8.  If the goal is for the CEO to build a relationship with another CEO, then either hold a 1-1 dinner or a 2-2, where each CEO brings a lieutenant.  But don’t say you’re having a CEO relationship dinner and bring your sales VP, sales director, account manager, and CFL rep.  It ends up like dating with an audience.  Don’t invite people just because they are in town — you can easily unbalance a dinner by bringing 9 of us and 3 of them, turning it into a multi-conversation, intra-company event to which a few customers are invited.  When in doubt, say no.

6.  Mis-level the crowd.  I think the most important part of networking dinners is that each participant feels like he/she gets value from meeting every other participant.  So if you’re hosting a 16-person CMO dinner, make sure the invitations are non-transferable so you can say “no” when several CMOs want to send their advertising or PR directors at the last minute.  While your PR director may enjoy having dinner with a bunch of CMOs, it’s unlikely to work in reverse.  The worst case is when two CMOs show up and are surrounded by 14 PR directors:  your intended target ends up feeling out-of-place.  It is far better to have 6 CMOs when you were hoping for 16 than it is to have 6 CMOs and 10 PR directors.  Burn that into your brain.  Tattoo it to your wrist.  Don’t not prioritize filling up seats at the cost of mis-levelling the dinner and destroying the event concept.  You can build on a great 6-person CMO event in the future.  You are dead when you host a mis-leveled event.

5.  Leave seating to chance.  Since we’re investing peoples’ valuable time (and probably $100 to $200 per head) in the event, we shouldn’t leave anything to chance.  For larger events, use place cards.  For smaller events, pre-brief the team on who to direct where.  It’s a disaster, for example, when at a square table, you place the two people you want talking next to each other, instead of across.  Make sure it doesn’t happen.  (And if it does, change it per rule 2 below.)

4.  Take more than 2 hours. Business dinners are business.  If you want to add a social part, go the bar afterwards for drinks.  It’s very awkward to leave a business dinner in progress and someone could  end up missing their train and getting in trouble with a spouse, because they expected a business dinner and you ran a lingering social event that took 3.5 hours.  In general, the more senior the invitee, the more likely the dinner is “just another calendar slot” as opposed to a social opportunity.  So when having dinner for 4-6 people at a restaurant (and I’m not in Europe), I tell the waiter in advance that my goal is to be done in two hours and that we want to have two courses and possibly dessert — no shared calamari pre-appetizer, no extra-salad (i.e., salad plus appetizer) shoved in as they love to do at Morton’s.  Just an appetizer per person, a main course, and when the time comes, a decision about dessert.  If things start to go too slowly, have some pre-appointed to leave the table, speak to the waiter discretely and say “get it moving.”  On dessert, if asked first, my answer is, “no thanks, just an espresso.”  If the customer  subsequently orders then I can always join in afterwards. Overall, by respecting your guest’s time, you increase the odds they will say yes the next time you invite them out.

3.  Order very expensive wine.  Here are a few things that can go wrong when you do:  [1] the wine is bad and you end up distracted with the whole rejection and re-tasting process, [2] the attendee is subject to a company policy where he/she has to pay his part of the meal (e.g., government, journalists) so you backfire screw them on their expense report, [3] people love it and you drink three bottles, tripling an expensive proposition, [4] you look pretentious, [5] your company looks wasteful and poorly controlled, [5] your three employees drink it but the customer subsequently announces he doesn’t drink wine and you end up treating the crew and not your customer.  When I lived in France, our classiest sales VP had a simple rule: order Sancerre.  It’s neither too cheap, nor too expensive.  It comes in dry, aromatic white (sauvignon blanc), mild-bodied red, and even rosé (both pinot noir based) so most people will like it.  I’ll demo the Sancerre principle on the wine list from the tony Village Pub, one of the best restaurants in Silicon Valley, where a Corton-Charlemagne will set you back $400 and a Kistler single-vineyard chardonnay $250.  The Sancerre weighs in about $130.

2.  Not roll with the punches.  Entertaining is always full of surprises and you need to roll with them.  We once arrived at The Triomphe in NYC only to find ourselves literally surrounded by a loud, drunken, office Holiday Party.  On arriving, we knew we were dead, so we dispatched a team member to find a quieter spot and did about 3 blocks away.  If a snowstorm wipes out 30% of your attendees, you better eliminate some tables and redo your place settings.  The key thing to remember in rolling with the punches is how to preserve the original goals of the meal.  Twice, I’ve been in cases where 4-5 employees had gathered at a very expensive restaurant (e.g., Morimoto) waiting for a group from a customer who never showed up.  In this case, rolling with the punches should mean eating somewhere else because the company shouldn’t be dropping Morimoto-style dollars on a basic mid-week traveling dinner.

1.  Order the tasting menu.  There are four problems with tasting menus:  they are expensive, they take the whole table hostage because they are ordered on an all-or-nothing basis, they take a long time to serve, and they don’t fill you up. The thing I hate most about tasting menu is not the first check — the $900 check for 4 — it’s the second check, the one for $100 for sliders and wings at the sports bar afterwards.  I am so opposed to tasting menus on business dinners that I actually try to avoid restaurants that offer them; I try to reduce the odds to zero that one person, typically a new employee, will provoke the chain reaction that results in the whole table ordering one.  I’ll do a tasting menu at a business dinner only if we are a small group of known foodies who will order the wine pairings, take three and a half hours on the meal, greatly enjoy it, and not run to McDonald’s right after.  Otherwise, stay away.

I could add as “rule 0” don’t get drunk, but frankly I’ve not seen that rule broken terribly often at the business dinners I’ve attended.  More often, I see it broken at company events — which is a whole different blog post.

I hope you find these rules, and the thinking behind them, helpful to you in optimizing all your business dinners.

Bon Appétit!

Did You Just Make a Plan or a Budget?

Congratulations!  If your company is like most, you’ve recently finished a (hopefully) solid 2013 and, from an EPM perspective, completed your 2014 annual planning process. 

Before we get too excited, however, let’s ask one quick question:  did you just make a plan or a budget?  In business, we tend to use the terms “plan” and “budget” as synonyms. But are they?  Methinks strongly no.

A budget is a set of numbers that say how much each operating manager (above some level of seniority) is supposed to spend and/or sell in the coming fiscal year.  A budget is made by finance and owned by finance.  Budgets are often built by trending (i.e., if we want revenue to go up 30%, then to improve profitability, we want expenses to up by only 20%, so give every cost center 20% more than last year, spreading it across time periods in line with historical actuals).  Operating managers often perceive budgets as “falling from the sky” — i.e., targets are dropped on them without conversation which makes sense in some perverse way (if the whole thing is a giant trending exercise, then there really isn’t much to discuss anyway).  Because budgets are trended, they are often nothing more than “buckets of money” — i.e., marketing is going to spend 20% more than last year on analyst relations, but no one can tell you  — and the model certainly does not include — any line-items/details on how it is to be spent.  Finally, the seniority-line (mentioned above) is usually quite high in the organization with budgets; only the top functional managers may actually have budgets that they control.

Budgets aren’t evil.  We need them.  We need targets against which to hold people accountable.  We need to be able to forecast cashflows.  We need, if we’re public, to set revenue and EPS guidance for Wall Street.

But a budget is not a plan.

A plan is strategic.  It starts not with an expense trending exercise, but instead with the company’s position in the market and a strategy for improving it.  A high-level strategy is defined.  Concrete goals/objectives are identified that support the strategy (e.g., start a European operation and sign 3 distributors).  Revenue targets are negotiated, ideally rewarding managers not just for beating the targets (which encourages sand-bagging) but also against more objective and external measures (e.g., market share).  Expense targets are set not simply by trending, but also by challenging past expenses and adding the costs of new strategic projects (i.e., stop/continue/start analysis).  Budget ownership is pushed down the organization, ideally with every people-manager controlling his/her own budget.

Plans have linked-detail, not just buckets of money.  When planning, you say “what do we need to accomplish in analyst relations and what will that cost.”  When budgeting, you say “how would we spend an extra 20% in analyst relations.”

The biggest way to tell if you’ve made a plan or a budget is when it comes to cutting time.  Budgets are cut with broad, top-down, across-the-board cuts:  “look, everyone’s going to need to take 10% more expense out.”  Plans are cut by removing strategic objectives:  “it looks like we were premature in wanting to open Europe, so I want to see a version of the plan where everyone removes those costs.”

I’d argue that a good plan is more well thought out in every way.  Budgets just trend revenue.  Plans triangulate using multiple different models with sensitivity analysis.  Budgets have TBH1, TBH2, and TBH3 as new hires.  Plans have AE/NYC, AE/Boston, and AE/Denver.

In philosophy, budgets are done by pragmatists with a goal to get them done:  “it’s imperfect, but you can’t predict the future, and we need something finalized by 12/31.”  By contrast, plans are done by strategists in a true attempt to anticipate what can be anticipated about the future.

  • If you’re going to hire 3 sales teams, they are going to want leads.
  • If Q2 is usually a rough seasonal quarter, then it’s likely to be one again.
  • If you’re going to acquire 100 customers, you are going to need to grow your support team.
  • If you are going to launch a focus on pharma sales, then you will need to develop a pharma sales kit.
  • If you know a competitor’s strategy and the backgrounds of their executive team, you can anticipate many of their moves (e.g., when Oracle put bankers in charge of the company was it a big surprise that they moved heavily towards an M&A strategy).
  • If you know industry trends, you can anticipate competitor strategy (e.g., do you think Oracle and SAP will be investing big in cloud in 2014, how about Microsoft and mobile)

As John Naisbitt once said, “the most reliable way to predict the future is to try to understand the present.”

So, if you just made a budget, congratulations.  You are far better off than many companies who can’t even get that process completed.  But beware you’ve got an opportunity ahead of you to make a plan.  If you’ve made a plan, congratulations again.  While your plan may changes many times as you go forward, the process of planning itself has made your organization more ready than most to respond to those changes.  I’ll finish with my favorite quote on planning, by Dwight Eisenhower:

“In the process of preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”

And I don’t think Eisenhower would have considered trended buckets-of-money a plan.

Kellblog’s 10 Predictions for 2014

Since it is the season of predictions, I thought I’d offer up a few of my own for 2014, based on my nearly three decades of experience working in enterprise software with databases, BI tools, and enterprise applications.

See the bottom for my disclaimer, and off we go.  Here are my ten predictions for 2014.

  • Despite various ominous comparisons to 1914 made by The Economist, I think 2014 is going to be a good year for Silicon Valley.  I think the tech IPO market will continue to be strong.  While some Bubble 2.0 anxiety is understandable, remember that while some valuations today may seem high, that the IPO bar is much higher today (at around $50M TTM revenues) than it was 13 years ago, when you could go public on $0 to $5M in revenues.  In addition, remember that most enterprise software companies (and many Internet companies) today rely on subscription revenue models (i.e., SaaS) which are much more reliable than the perpetual license streams of the past.  Not all exuberance is irrational.
  • Cloud computing will continue to explode.  IDC predicts that aggregate cloud spending will exceed $100B in 2014 with amazing growth, given the scale, of 25%.  Those are big numbers, but think about this:  some 15 years after Salesforce.com was founded, its head pin category, sales force automation (SFA), is still only around 40% penetrated by the cloud.  ERP is less than 10% in the cloud.  EPM is less than 5% in the cloud.  As Bill Gates once said about prognostication, “we always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”  IT is going to the cloud, inexorably, but change in IT never happens overnight.
  • Big Data hype will peak.   I remember the first time I heard the term “big data” (in about 2008 when I was on the board of Aster Data) and thinking:  “wow, that’s good.”  Turns out my marketing instincts were spot on.  Every company today that actually is — or isn’t — a Big Data play is dressing up as one, which creates a big problem because the term quickly starts to lose meaning.  As a result, Big Data today is nearing the peak of Gartner’s hype cycle.  As a term it will start to fall off, but real Big Data technologies such as NoSQL databases and predictive analytics will continue to face a bright future.
  • The market will be unable to supply sufficient Data Science talent.  If someone remade The Graduate today, they’d change  Mr. McGuire’s line about “plastics” to “data science.”  Our ability to amass data and create analytics technology is quickly surpassing our ability to use it.  Job postings for data scientists were up 15,000% in 2012 over 2011.  Colleges are starting to offer data science degrees (for example, Berkeley and Northwestern).  There’s even an a startup, Udacity, specifically targeting the need for data science education.  Because of the scarcity of data science talent, the specialization required to correctly use it, and the lack of required scale to build data science teams, data science consultancies like Palantir and Mu Sigma will continue to flourish.
  • Privacy will remain center stage.  Trust in “Don’t Be Evil” Google and Facebook has never been particularly high.  Nevertheless, it seems like the average person has historically felt “you can do whatever you want with my personal data if you want to pitch me an advertisement” — but, thanks to Edward Snowden — we now know we can add, “and if the government wants to use that data to stop a terrorist attack, then back off.”  It’s an odd asymmetry.  These are complex questions, but in a world where the cost of data collection will converge to free, will the privacy violation be in collecting the data or in analyzing it?  In a world where one trusted the government to adequately control the querying and access (i.e., where it took a warrant from a non-secret court), I’d argue the query standard might be good enough.  Regardless, the debate sparked thus far will continue to burn in 2014 and tech companies will very much remain in the center of it.
  • Mobile will continue to drive consumer companies like Dropbox and Evernote, but also enterprise companies like Box, Clari, Expensify, and MobileIron.  Turns out the enterprise killer app for mobile was less about getting enterprise applications to run on mobile devices and more about device proliferation, uniform access to content, and eventually security and management.  (And since I’m primarily an enterprise blogger, I won’t even mention social à la SnapChat or mobile gaming).  As one VC recently told me over dinner, “God bless mobile.”  Amen in 2014.
  • Social becomes a feature, not an app.  When I first saw Foursquare in 2010, I thought it should be the example in the venture capital dictionary for “feature, not company.”  Location-awareness has definitely become a feature and these days I do more check-in’s on Facebook than Foursquare.  I felt the same way when I worked at Salesforce.com and we were neck deep in the “social enteprise” vision.  When I saw Chatter, I thought “cool, but who needs yet another communications platform.”  Then I realized you could follow a lead, a case, or an opportunity and I was hooked.  But those are all feature use-cases, not application or company use-cases.  Given the pace of Salesforce, they fell in love with, married, and divorced social faster than most vendors could figure out their product strategy.  In the end, social should be an important feature of an enterprise application, almost a fabric built across modules.  I think that vision ends up getting implemented in 2014.  (Particularly if Microsoft ends up putting in David Sacks as its next CEO as some speculate.)
  • SAP’s HANA strategy actually works.  I was one of relatively few people who was absolutely convinced that SAP’s $5.8B purchase of Sybase in 2010 was more about databases than mobile.  SAP is clearly crafting a strategy to move both analytics and transactional database processing onto HANA and they have been doggedly consistent about HANA and its importance to the firm going forward.  They have been trying for decades to eliminate their dependency on Oracle — e.g., the 1997 Adabas D acquisition from Software AG  — and I believe this time they will finally succeed.  In addition, they will succeed — quite ironically — with their ingredient-branding strategy around HANA using a database to differentiate an application suite, something that they themselves would have seen as heresy 20 years ago.
  • Good Data goes public.  Cloud-based BI tools have had a tough slog over the years.  Some good companies were too early to market and failed (e.g., LucidEra).  Birst, another early entrant, certainly hasn’t had an easy time over its ten-year history.  Personally, while I was always a fan of cloud-based applications (having become a big Salesforce customer in 2003), I always worried that with cloud-based BI tools, you’d have too much of the nothing-to-analyze problem.  Good Data got around that problem early on by adopting a Crystal-like OEM strategy, licensing their tools through SaaS applications vendors.  They later evolved to a general cloud-based BI platform and applications strategy.  The company was founded in 2007, has raised $75M in VC, is reportedly doing very well, and an IPO seems a likely event in its future.  I’m calling 2014.
  • Adaptive Planning gets acquired by NetSuite.  Adaptive Planning was founded in 2003 as a cloud-based planning company and — despite both aspirations and claims to the contrary — in my estimation continues to play the role of the low-priced, cheap-and-cheerful planning solution for small and medium businesses.  That market position, combined with an existing, long-term strategic relationship whereby NetSuite resells Adaptive as NetSuite Financial Planning, makes me believe that 2014 will be the year that NetSuite finally pulls the trigger and acquires Adaptive Planning.  I think this deal could go down one of two ways.  If Adaptive continues to perform as they claim, then a potential S-1 filing could serve as a trigger for NetSuite (much as Crystal Decisions’ S-1 served as a trigger for Business Objects).  Or, if Adaptive hits rough road in 2014 for any reason (including the curse of the new headquarters) then that could trigger NetSuite with a value-shopper impulse leading to the same conclusion.

I should end with a bonus prediction (#11) that Host Analytics, our customers, and my colleagues will enjoy a successful 2014, continuing to execute on our cloud strategy to put the E back in EPM — focus and leadership in the enterprise segment of the market — and that we will continue to acquire both high-growth companies who want an EPM solution with which they can scale and liberate enterprises from costly and painful Hyperion implementations and upgrades.

Finally, let me conclude by wishing everyone a Happy New Year and great business success in 2014.

Disclaimers

  • See my FAQ to understand my various allegiances and disclaimers.
  • Remember I am the CEO of Host Analytics so I have a de facto pro-Host Analytics viewpoint.  
  • Predictions are opinion:  I have mine; yours may differ.
  • Finally, remember the famous Yogi Berra quote:  predictions are hard, especially about the future.

The Pillorying of MarkLogic: Why Selling Disruptive Technology To the Government is Hard and Risky

There’s a well established school of thought that high-tech startups should focus on a few vertical markets early in their development.  The question is whether government should be one of them?

The government seems to think so.  They run a handful of programs to encourage startups to focus on government.  Heck, the CIA even has a venture arm right on Sand Hill Road, In-Q-Tel, whose mission is to find startups who are not focused on the Intelligence Community (IC) and to help them find initial customers (and provide them with a dash of venture capital) to encourage them to do so.

When I ran MarkLogic between mid-2004 and 2010, we made the strategic decision to focus on government as one of our two key verticals.  While it was then, and still is, rather contrarian to do so, we nevertheless decided to focus on government for several reasons.

  • The technology fit was very strong.  There are many places in government, including the IC, where they have a bona fide need for a hybrid database / search engine, such as MarkLogic.
  • Many people in government were tired of the Oracle-led oligopoly in the RDBMS market and were seeking alternatives.  (Think:  I’m tired of writing Oracle $40M checks.)  While this was true in other markets, it was particularly true in government because their problems were compounded by lack of good technical fit — i.e., they were paying an oligopolist a premium price for technology that was not, in the end, terribly well suited to what they were doing.
  • Unlike other markets (e.g., Finance, Web 2.0) where companies could afford the high-caliber talent able to use the then-new open source NoSQL alternatives, government — with the exception of the IC — was not swimming in such talent.  Ergo, government really needed a well-supported enterprise NoSQL system usable by a more typical engineer.

The choice had always made me nervous for a number of reasons:

  • Government deals were big, so it could lead to feast-or-famine revenue performance unless you were able to figure out how to smooth out the inherent volatility.
  • Government deals ran through systems integrators (SI) which could greatly complexify the sales cycle.
  • Government was its own tribe, with its own language, and its own idiosyncrasies (e.g., security clearances).  While bad from the perspective of commercial expansion, these things also served as entry barriers that, once conquered, should provide a competitive advantage.

The only thing I hadn’t really anticipated was the politics.

It had never occurred to me, for example, that in a $630M project — where MarkLogic might get maybe $5 to $10M — that someone would try to blame failure of what appears to be one of the worst-managed projects in recent history on a component that’s getting say 1% of the fees.

It makes no sense.  But now, for the second time, the New York Times has written an article about the HealthCare.gov fiasco where MarkLogic is not only one of very few vendors even mentioned but somehow implicated in the failures because it is different.

HealthCare.gov

Let me start with a few of my own observations on HealthCare.gov from the sidelines.  (Note that I, to my knowledge, was never involved with the project during my time at MarkLogic.)

From the cheap seats the problems seem simple:

  • Unattainable timelines.  You don’t build a site “just like Amazon.com” using government contractors in a matter of quarters.  Amazon has been built over the course of a more than a decade.
  • No Beta program.  It’s incomprehensible to me that such a site would go directly from testing into production without quarters of Beta.  (Remember, not so long ago, that Google ran Beta’s for years?)
  • No general oversight.  It seems that there was no one playing the general contractor role.  Imagine if you built a house with plumbers, carpenters, and electricians not coordinated by a strong central resource.
  • Insufficient testing.  The absent Beta program aside, it seems the testing phase lasted only weeks, that certain basic functionality was not tested, and that it’s not even clear if there was a code-freeze before testing.
  • Late changes.  Supporting the idea that there was no code freeze are claims that the functional spec was changing weeks before the launch.

Sadly, these are not rare problems on a project of this scale.  This kind of stuff happens all the time, and each of these problems is a hallmark of a “train wreck” software development project.

To me, guessing from a distance, it seems pretty obvious what happened.

  • Someone who didn’t understand how hard it to build was ordered up a website of very high complexity with totally unrealistic timeframes.
  • A bunch of integrators (and vendors) who wanted their share of the $630M put in bids, probably convincing themselves in each part of the system that if things went very well that they could maybe make the deadlines or, if not, maybe cut some scope.  (Remember you don’t win a $50M bid by saying “the project is crazy and the timeframe unrealistic.”)
  • Everybody probably did their best but knew deep down that the project was failing.
  • Everyone was afraid to admit that the project was failing because nobody likes to deliver bad news, and it seems that there was no one central coordinator whose job it was to do so.

Poof.  It happens all the time.  It’s why the world has generally moved away from big-bang projects and towards agile methodologies.

While sad, this kind of story happens.  The question is how does the New York Times end up writing two articles where somehow the failure is somehow blamed on MarkLogic.  Why is MarkLogic even mentioned?  This the story of a project run amok, not the story of a technology component failure.

Politics and Technology

The trick with selling disruptive technology to the government is that you encounter two types of people.

  • Those who look objectively at requirements and try to figure out which technology can best do the job.  Happily, our government contains many of these types of people.
  • Those who look at their own skill sets and view any disruptive technology as a threat.

I met many Oracle-DBA-lifers during my time working with the government.  And I’m OK with their personal decision to stop learning, not refresh their skills, not stay current on technology, and to want to ride a deep expertise in the Oracle DMBS into a comfortable retirement.  I get it.  It’s not a choice I’d make, but I can understand.

What I cannot understand, however, is when someone takes a personal decision and tries to use it as a reason to not use a new technology.  Think:  I don’t know MarkLogic, it is new, ergo it is a threat to my personal career plan, and ergo I am opposed to using MarkLogic, prima facie, because it’s not aligned with my personal interests.  That’s not OK.

To give you an idea of how warped this perspective can get (and while this may be urban myth), I recall hearing a story that one time a Federal contractor called a whistle-blower line to report the use of MarkLogic on system instead of Oracle.  All I could think of was Charlton Heston at the end of Soylent Green saying, “I’ve seen it happening … it’s XML … they’re making it out of XML.

The trouble is that these folks exist and they won’t let go.  The result:  when a $630M poorly managed project gets in trouble, they instantly raise and re-raise decisions made about technology with the argument that “it’s non-standard.”

Oracle was non-standard in 1983.  Thirty years later it’s too standard (i.e., part of an oligopoly) and not adapted to the new technical challenges at hand.  All because some bright group of people wanted to try something new, to meet a new challenge, that cost probably a fraction of what Oracle would have charged, the naysayers and Oracle lifers will challenge it endlessly saying it’s “different.”

Yes, it is different.  And that, far as I can tell, was the point.  And if you think that looking at 1% of the costs is the right way to diagnose a struggling $630M project, I’d beg to differ.  Follow the money.

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FYI, in researching this post, I found this just-released HealthCare.gov progress report.