Category Archives: Sales Model

A CEO’s High-Level Guide to GTM Troubleshooting

I’ve written about this topic a lot over the years, but never before integrated my ideas into a single high-level piece that not only provides a solution to the problem, but also derives it from first principles. That’s what I’ll do today. If you’re new to this topic, I strongly recommend reading the articles I link to throughout the post.

Scene: you’re consistently having trouble hitting plan. Finance is blaming sales. Sales is blaming marketing. Marketing is blaming the macro environment. Everyone is blaming SDRs. Alliances is hiding in a foxhole hoping no one remembers to blame them. E-staff meetings resemble a cage fight from Beyond Thunderdome, but it’s a tag-team match with each C-level tapping in their heads of operations when they need a break. Numbers are flying everywhere. The shit is hitting the proverbial fan.

The question for CEOs: what do I do about this mess? Here’s my answer.

First:

  • Avoid the blame game. That sounds much easier than it is because blame can vary from explicit to subtle and everyone’s blame sensitivity ears are set to eleven. Speak slowly, carefully, and factually when discussing the situation. You might wonder why everyone is pointing fingers, and the reason might well be you.
  • Solve the problem. Keep everyone focused on solving the problem going forward. Use blameless statements of fact when discussing historical data. For example, say “when we start with less than 2.5x pipeline coverage, we almost always miss plan” as opposed to “when marketing fails on pipeline generation, we miss plan unless sales does their usual heroic job in pipeline conversion.”)

Then reset the pipeline discussion by constantly reminding everyone of these three facts:

  • How do you make 16 quarters in a row? One at a time.
  • How do you make one quarter? Start with sufficient pipeline coverage.
  • And then convert it at your target conversion rate.

This reframes the problem into making one quarter — the right focus if you’ve missed three in a row.

  • This will force a discussion of what “sufficient” means
  • That is generally determined by inverting your historical week 3 pipeline conversion rates
  • And adjusting them as required, for example, to account for the impacts of big deals or other one-time events
  • This may in turn reveal a conversion rate problem, where actual conversion rates are either below targets and/or simply not viable to produce a sales model that hits the board’s target customer acquisition cost (CAC) ratio. For example, you generally can’t achieve a decent CAC ratio with a 20% conversion rate and 5x pipeline coverage requirement. In this case, you will need to balance your energy on improving both conversion rates and starting coverage. While conversion rates are largely a sales team issue, there is nevertheless plenty that marketing and alliances can do to help: marketing through targeting, tools, enablement, and training; alliances through delivering higher-quality opportunities that often convert at higher rates than either inbound or SDR outbound.

It also says you need to think about each and every quarter. This leads to three critical realizations:

  • That you must also focus on future pipeline, but segmented into quarters, and not on some rolling basis
  • That you need to forecast pipeline (e.g., for next quarter, if not also the one after that)
  • That you need some mechanism for taking action when that forecast is below target

The last point should cause you to create some meeting or committee where the pipeline forecast is reviewed and the owners of each of the four to six pipeline sources (i.e., marketing, AE outbound, SDR outbound, alliances, community, PLG) can discuss and then take remedial measures.

  • That body should be a team of senior people focused on a single goal: starting every quarter with sufficient pipeline coverage.
  • It should be chaired by one person who must be seen as wearing two hats: one as their functional role (e.g., CMO) and the other as head of the pipeline task force. That person must be empowered to solve problems when they arise, even when they cross functions.
  • Think: “OK, we’re forecasting 2.2x starting coverage for next quarter instead of 2.5x, which is a $2M gap. Who can do what to get us that $2M?”
  • If that means shifting resources, they shift them (e.g., “I’ll defer hiring one SDR to free up $25K to spend on demandgen”).
  • If that means asking for new resources, they ask (e.g., I’ll tell the CEO and CFO that if we can’t find $50K, then we think we’ve got no chance of hitting next quarter’s starting coverage goals).
  • If that means rebalancing the go-to-market team, they do it. For example, “we’ve only got enough pipeline to support 8 AEs and we’ve got 12. If we cut two AEs, we can use that money to invest in marketing and SDRs to support the remaining 10.”
  • Finally, if you need to focus on both pipeline coverage and conversion rates, then this same body, in part two of the meeting, can review progress on actions design to improve conversion.

Teamwork and alignment is not about behaving well in meetings or only politely backstabbing each other outside them. It’s about sitting down together to say, “well, we’re off plan, and what are we going to do about it?” And doing so without any sacred cows in the conversation. Just as no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy, no pipeline plan survives first contact with the market. That’s why you need this group and that’s what it means to align sales, marketing, alliances, and SDRs on pipeline goals. It’s the translation of the popular saying, “pipeline generation is a team sport.”

Notice that I never said to heavily focus on individual pipeline generation (“pipegen”) targets. Yes, you need them and you should set and track them, but we must remember the purpose of pipegen is to hit starting pipeline coverage goals. So just as we shouldn’t overly focus on other upstream metrics — from dials to alliances-meetings to MQLs — we shouldn’t overly focus on pipegen targets to the point where they become the end, not the means. While pipegen is certainly closer to starting coverage than MQLs or dials, it is nevertheless an enabler, in this case, one step removed.

Yes, tracking upstream metrics is important and for marketing I’d track both MQLs and pipegen (via oppty count, not dollars), but I’d neither pop champagne nor tie the CMO to the whipping post based on either MQLs or pipegen alone.

Don’t get me wrong — if your model’s correct, it should be impossible to consistently hit starting pipeline coverage targets while consistently failing on pipegen goals. But in any given quarter, maybe the AEs are short and marketing covers or marketing’s short and alliances covers. The point is that if the company hits the starting coverage goal, we’re happy with the pipeline machine and if we don’t, we’re not. Regardless of whether individual pipeline source X or Y hit their pipegen goals in a quarter. Ultimately, this point of view drives better teamwork because there’s no shame in forecasting a light result against target or shame in asking for help to cover it.

Finally, I’d note an odd situation I sometimes see that looks like this:

  • Sales consistently achieves bookings targets, but just by a hair
  • Marketing consistently underachieves pipeline targets

For example, sales consistently converts pipeline at 25% off 4x coverage and that 25% conversion rate is just enough to hit plan. But, because the CRO likes cushion, he forces the CMO to sign up for 5x coverage. Marketing then consistently fails to deliver that 5x coverage, delivering 4x coverage instead.

This is an unhealthy situation because sales is consistently succeeding while marketing is consistently failing. If you believe, as I do, that if sales is consistently hitting plan then, definitionally marketing has provided everything it needs to (from pipeline to messaging to enablement), then you can see how pathological this situation is. Sales is simply looking out for itself at the expense of marketing. That’s good for the company in the short term because you’re consistently hitting plan, but bad in the long term because there will be high turnover in the marketing department that should impede their ability to deliver sufficient pipeline in the future.

For more on this topic, please listen to our podcast episode of SaaS Talk with the Metrics Brothers entitled: Top-Down GTM Troubleshooting, Dave’s Method.

Think of Demandgen Like Any Other Sales Support Resource

Why is it that when we want to add an account executive (AE) to the plan, we always think about some ratios but not others? For example, most people think: Boom! Then we’re going to need:

  • 2/3rds of an sales consultant (SC)
  • 1/3rd of a sales development rep (SDR)
  • 1/6th of a sales manager

With the chosen ratios varying as a function of your sales model. If we’re good, we might even include:

  • 1/8th of an alliances manager
  • 1/10th of a salesops person
  • 1/12th of a sales enablement person

If we’re really good, and we have a large organization, we’ll also get the next layers of sales, SC, and SDR management.

But what’s the one thing that almost never comes up in these support ratio discussions? Demand generation (aka demandgen). Money for marketing to build pipeline for the incremental AE.

When we don’t treat demandgen as a ratio-driven, support resource, we get what I call the baby robin problem.

Sellers waiting for pipeline from marketing

We throw our model out of whack by hiring more sellers than planned and thus everyone ends up with insufficient pipeline. The sellers turn into baby robins, mouths extended upwards, waiting for someone — e.g., SDRs, marketing, alliances — to drop opportunities in.

How can we avoid the baby robin problem? By treating demandgen budget as you would any other sales support resource. We instinctively think about SDRs and SCs (even if we don’t always go hire them). But we don’t do the same for demandgen. So part of this is self-discipline. The other part is math.

Let’s assume steady state, so we can ignore timing and ramping:

  • If our AE has a quota of $300K/quarter
  • And we want 3x pipeline coverage
  • Then we need to generate $900K of pipeline each quarter
  • If our pipe/spend ratio is a healthy 15:1
  • Then we need $60K/quarter in demandgen spend per AE

That’s $240K/year. A lot more than 1/3rd of an SDR and 1/6th of a manager. Yet, we routinely model these lesser costs and forget the demandgen.

Why? Silos.

It’s a different budget. Oh, that’s marketing. But it’s sales that’s asking for incremental money to hire the seller. The marketing budget is someone else’s problem. Until you repeat this 5-10 times and now every seller is starving for pipeline. Then it’s everyone’s problem.

So how can you avoid this? I’ll say it a few different ways, so you can take your pick:

  • Work together. Hiring incremental sellers is a go-to-market (GTM) problem, not a sales problem.
  • Plan holistically.
  • Treat demandgen like any other sales support resource.

Thoughts on Hiring Your First VP of Sales

There’s some great content out there on the subject of hiring your first VP of sales at a startup, so in this post I’m going to do some quick thoughts on the subject in an effort to complement the existing corpus.

In other words, this is not your classic TLDR Kelloggian essay, but some quick tips.

  • Hire them first.  That is, before hiring any salesreps.  The first VP of Sales should be your first salesrep.  Hire someone who wants to walk (and even discover) the path before leading others.  Hire someone who enjoys the fight.
  • Hire them hopelessly early.  Don’t wait for product availability.  Don’t wait until you’ve hired 3-4 reps and they need a manager.  Don’t wait until you have a bookings plan that needs hitting. Hire them as early as possible.
  • Glue yourselves together for 6-12 months.  You want to spend 6-12 months as Frick and Frack.  Why?  Most founders can sell their idea and their software.  The real question is:  can anyone else?  By gluing yourselves together you will transfer a huge amount of critical knowledge to the sales VP.  That, or you’ll drive each other crazy and discover you can’t work together.  Either way, it’s good to succeed or fail fast.  And the goal is total alignment.  [1]
  • Hire them before the VP of marketing.  I know some very smart people who disagree with me on this question, but as a three-time enterprise software CMO (and two-time CEO) I take no shame in saying that marketing is a support function.  We’re here to help.  Hire us after hiring sales.  Let the VP of Sales have a big vote in choosing who supports them [2].
  • Hire someone who is a first-line manager today.  Their title might be district manager or regional vice president, but you want someone close to the action, but who also is experienced in building and managing a team.  Why?  Because you want them to be successful as your first salesrep for 6-12 months and then build up a team that they can manage.  In a perfect world, they’d have prior experience managing up to 10 reps, but even 4-6 will do [3].  You want to avoid like the plague a big-company, second- or third-line manager who, while undoubtedly carrying a large number, likely spends more time in spreadsheets and internal reviews than in customer meetings.

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Notes
[1] Hat tip to Bhavin Shah for this idea.

[2] A wise VP of Marketing often won’t join before of the VP of Sales anyway.

[3] On the theory that someone’s forward potential is not limited to their prior experience.  Someone who’s successfully managed 4-6 reps can likely manage 10-12 with one extra first-line manager.  Managing 36 through a full layer of first-line managers is a different story.  That’s not to say they can’t do it, but it is a different job.  In any case, the thing to absolutely avoid is the RVP who can only manage through a layer of managers and views the sales trenches as a distant and potentially unpleasant memory.

The Holy Grail of Enterprise Sales: Is a Repeatable Sales Process Enough?

(This is the third in a three-part restructuring and build-out of a previous post.  See note [1] for details.)

In the first two posts in this series, we first defined a repeatable sales process and then discussed how to prove that your sales process is repeatable.

All that was just the warm-up for the big idea in this series:  is repeatability enough?

The other day I was re-reading my favorite book on data governance (and yes I have one), Non-Invasive Data Governance by Bob Seiner.  Reading it reminded me of the Capability Maturity Model, from Carnegie Mellon’s Software Engineering Institute.

Here’s the picture that triggered my thinking:

Did you see it?  Look again.

Repeatable is level two in a five-level model.  Here we are in sales and marketing striving to achieve what our engineering counterparts would call 40% of the way there.  Doesn’t that explain a lot?

To think about what we should strive for, I’m going to switch models, to CMMI, which later replaced CMM.   While it lacks a level called “repeatable” – which is what got me thinking about the whole topic in the first place – I think it’s nevertheless a better model for thinking about sales [2].

Here’s a picture of CMMI:

I’d say that most of what I defined as a repeatable sales process fits into the CMMI model as level 3, defined.  What’s above that?

  • Level 4, quantitively managed. While most salesforces are great about quantitative measurement of the result – tracking and potentially segmenting metrics like quota performance, average sales price, expansion rates, win rates – fewer actually track and measure the sales process [3].  For example, time spent at each stage, activity monitoring by stage, conversion by stage, and leakage reason by stage.  Better yet, why just track these variables when you can act on them?  For example, put rules in place to take squatted opportunities from reps and give them to someone else [4], or create excess stage-aging reports that will be reviewed in management meetings.
  • Level 5, optimizing. The idea here is that once the process is defined and managed (not just tracked) quantitatively, then we should be in a mode where we are constantly improving the process.  To me, this means both analytics on the existing process as well as qualitative feedback and debate about how to make it better.  That is, we are not only in continual improvement mode when it comes to sales execution, but also when it comes to sale process.  We want to constantly strive to execute the process as best we can and also strive to improve the process.  This, in my estimation, is both a matter of culture and focus.  You need a culture that process- and process-improvement-oriented.  You need to take the time – as it’s often very hard to do in sales – to focus not just on results, but on the process and how to constantly improve it.

To answer my own question:  is repeatability enough?  No, it’s not.  It’s a great first step in the industrialization of your sales process, but it quickly then becomes the platform on which you start quantitative management and optimization.

So the new question should be not “is your sales process repeatable?” but “is it optimizing?”  And never “optimized,” because you’re never done.

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Notes

[1] I have a bad habit, which I’ve been slowly overcoming, to accidently put real meat on one topic into an aside of a post on a different one.  After reading the original post, I realized that I’d buried the definition of a repeatable sales model and the tests for having one into a post that was really about applying CMMI to the sales model.  Ergo, as my penance, as a service to future readers, and to help my SEO, I am decomposing that post into three parts and elaborating on it during the restructuring process.

[2] The nuance is that in CMM you could have a process that was repeatable without being (formally) defined.  CMMI gets rid of this notion which, for whatever it’s worth, I think is pretty real in sales.  That is, without any formal definition, certain motions get repeated informally and through word of mouth.

[3] With the notable exception of average sales cycle length, which just about everyone tracks – but this just looks at the whole process, end to end.  (And some folks start it late, e.g., from-demo as opposed to from-acceptance.)

[4] Where squatting means accepting an opportunity but not working on it, either at all or sufficiently to keep it moving.

The Holy Grail of Enterprise Sales: Proving a Repeatable Sales Process

(This is the second in a three-part restructuring and build-out of a previous post.  See note [1] for details.)

In the prior post we introduced repeatable sales process as the Holy Grail of enterprise software sales and, unlike some who toss the term around rather casually, we defined a repeatable sales process as meaning you have six things:

  1. Standard hiring profile
  2. Standard onboarding program
  3. Standard support ratios
  4. Standard patch
  5. Standard kit
  6. Standard sales methodology

The point of this, of course, is to demonstrate that given these six standard elements you can consistently deliver a desirable, standard result.

The surprisingly elusive question is then, how to measure that?

  • Making plan?  This should be a necessary but not sufficient condition for proving repeatability.  As we’ll see below, you can make plan in healthy as well as unhealthy ways (e.g., off a small number of reps, off disproportionate expansion and weak new logo sales).
  • Realizing some percentage of your sales capacity?  I love this — and it’s quite useful if you’ve just lost or cut a big chunk of your salesforce and are ergo in the midst of a ramp reset — but it doesn’t prove repeatability because you can achieve it in both good and bad ways [2].
  • Having 80% of your salesreps at 100%+ of quota?  While I think percent of reps hitting quota is the right way to look at things, I think 80% at 100% is the wrong bar.

Why is defaulting to 80% of reps at 100%+ of quota the wrong bar?

  • The attainment percentage should vary as function of business model: with a velocity model, monthly quotas, and a $25K ARR average sales price (ASP), it’s a lot more applicable than with an enterprise model, annual quotas, and a $300K ASP.
  • 80% at 100%+ means you beat plan even if no one overperforms [3] – and that hopefully rarely happens.
  • There is a difference between annual and quarterly performance, so while 80% at 100% might be reasonable in some cases on an annual basis, on a quarterly basis it might be more like 50% — see the spreadsheet below for an example.
  • The reality of enterprise software is that performance is way more volatile than you might like it to be when you’re sitting in the board room
  • When we’re looking at overall productivity we might look at the entire salesforce, but when we’re looking at repeatability we should look at recently hired cohorts. Does 80% of your third-year reps at quota tell you as much about repeatability – and the presumed performance of new hires – as 80% of your first-year reps cohort?

Long story short, in enterprise software, I’d say 80% of salesreps at 80% of quota is healthy, providing the company is making plan.  I’d look at the most recent one-year and two-year cohorts more than the overall salesforce.  Most importantly, to limit survivor bias, I’d look at the attrition rate on each cohort and hope for nothing more than 20%/year.  What good is 80% at 80% of quota if 50% of the salesreps flamed out in the first year?  Tools like my salesrep ramp chart help with this analysis.

Just to make the point visceral, I’ll finish by showing a spreadsheet with a concrete example of what it looks like to make plan in a healthy vs. unhealthy way, and demonstrate that setting the bar at 80% of reps at 100% of quota is generally not realistic (particularly in a world of over-assignment).

If you look at the analysis near the bottom, you see the healthy company lands at 105% of plan, with 80% of reps at 80%+ of quota, and with only 40% of reps at 100%+ of quota.  The unhealthy company produces the same sales — landing the company at 105% of plan — but due to a more skewed distribution of performance gets there with only 47% of reps at 80%+ and only a mere 20% at 100%+.

In our final post in this series, we’ll ask the question:  is repeatability enough?

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Notes

[1] I have a bad habit, which I’ve been slowly overcoming, to accidently put real meat on one topic into an aside of a post on a different one.  After reading the original post, I realized that I’d buried the definition of a repeatable sales model and the tests for having one into a post that was really about applying CMMI to the sales model.  Ergo, as my penance, as a service to future readers, and to help my SEO, I am decomposing that post into three parts and elaborating on it during the restructuring process.

[2] Unless you’ve had either late hiring or unexpected attrition, 80% of your notional sales capacity should roughly be your operating plan targets.  So this is point is normally subtly equivalent to the prior one.

[3] Per the prior point, the typical over-assignment cushion is around 20%