Appearance on the AI and the Future of Work Podcast with Dan Turchin

ai and future of workI’m happy to announce that I was recently interviewed on the AI and the Future of Work podcast, hosted by Dan Turchin, Founder and CEO of PeopleReign, and formerly of Astound.ai, Big Panda, ServiceNow, and Aeroprise.  Dan’s a great technologist, entrepreneur, and visionary so I was happy to sit down with him for this wide-ranging, twenty-five minute chat.

On the podcast, we discuss:

  • A bit of my career history and background
  • How COVID-19 will change work in Silicon Valley
  • Innovation beyond Silicon Valley (one of my favorite topics, given my five years in Europe.)
  • The one most important SaaS metric.  (Hint:  LTV/CAC.)
  • The most misunderstood SaaS metric.  (I can’t remember what I said, but I should have said CAC Payback Period.)
  • A prediction about a workplace activity that is outrageous today but could be commonplace in the future.  (I said salary transparency after struggling a bit.  I suppose face masks and elbow bumps would have been an easier answer.)
  • Thoughts on the best software cultures.  (Keyword:  winning.)
  • My advice to my younger self.  (“Put your hands in the air and step away from the keyboard,” in reference to the various troubles I’ve caused myself over email when I should have either said nothing or called.)

The link to the podcast episode is here.  I hope you get a chance to listen to it and enjoy it if you do.  Thanks for having me Dan.

The First Three Slides of a SaaS Board Deck, with Company Key Metrics

I’m a SaaS metrics nut and I go to a lot of SaaS board meetings, so I’m constantly thinking about (among other things) how to produce a minimal set of metrics that holistically describe a SaaS company.  In a prior post, I made a nice one-slide metrics summary for an investor deck.  Here, I’m changing to board mode and suggesting what I view as a great set of three slides for starting a (post-quarter) board meeting, two of which are loaded with carefully-chosen metrics.

Slide 1:  The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly
The first slide (after you’ve reviewed the agenda) should be a high-level summary of the good and the bad  — with an equal number of each [1] — and should be used both to address issues in real-time and tee-up subsequent discussions of items slated to be covered later in the meeting.  I’d often have the e-staff owner of the relevant bullet provide a thirty- to sixty-second update rather than present everything myself.

slide 0The next slide should be a table of metrics.  While you may think this is an “eye chart,” I’ve never met a venture capitalist (or a CFO) who’s afraid of a table of numbers.  Most visualizations (e.g., Excel charts) have far less information density than a good table of numbers and while sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words, I recommend saving the pictures for the specific cases where they are needed [2].  By default, give me numbers.

Present in Trailing 9 Quarter Format
I always recommend presenting numbers with context, which is the thing that’s almost always missing or in short supply.  What do I mean by context? If you say we did $3,350K (see below) in new ARR in 1Q20, I don’t necessarily know if that’s good or bad.  Independent board members might sit on three to six boards, venture capitalists (VCs) might sit on a dozen.  Good with numbers or not, it’s hard to memorize 12 companies’ quarterly operating plans and historical results across one or two dozen metrics.

With a trailing nine quarter (T9Q) format, I get plenty of context.  I know we came up short of the new ARR plan because the plan % column shows we’re at 96%.  I can look back to 1Q19 and see $2,250K, so we’ve grown new ARR, nearly 50% YoY.  I can look across the row and see  a nice general progression, with only a slight down-dip from 4Q19 to 1Q20, pretty good in enterprise software. Or, I can look at the bottom of the block and see ending ARR and its growth — the two best numbers for valuing a SaaS company — are $32.6M and 42% respectively.  This format gives me two full years to compare so I can look at both sequential and year-over-year (YoY) trends, which is critical because enterprise software is a seasonal business.

What’s more, if you distribute (or keep handy during the meeting) the underlying spreadsheet, you’ll see that I did everyone the courtesy of hiding a fair bit of next-level detail with grouped rows — so we get a clean summary here, but are one-click away from answering obvious next-level questions, like how did new ARR split between new logos and upsell?

Slide 2:  Key Operating Metrics

Since annual recurring revenue (ARR) is everything in a SaaS company, this slide starts with the SaaS leaky bucket, starting ARR + new ARR – churn ARR = ending ARR.

After that, I show net new ARR, an interesting metric for a financial investor (e.g., your VCs), but somewhat less interesting as an operator.  Financially, I want to know how much the company spent on S&M to increase the “water level” in the leaky bucket by what amount [3].  As an operator, I don’t like net new ARR because it’s a compound metric that’s great for telling me there is a problem somewhere (e.g., it didn’t go up enough) but provides no value in telling me why [4].

After that, I show upsell ARR as a percent of new ARR, so we can see how much we’re selling to new vs. existing customers in a single row.  Then, I do the math for the reader on new ARR YoY growth [5].  Ultimately, we want to judge sales by how fast they are increasing the water they dump into the bucket — new ARR growth (and not net new ARR growth which mixes in how effective customer success is at preventing leakage).

The next block shows the CAC ratio, the amount the company pays in sales & marketing cost for $1 of new ARR.  Then we show the churn rate, in its toughest form — gross churn ARR divided not by the entire starting ARR pool, but only by that part which is available-to-renew (ATR) in the current period. No smoothing or anything that could hide fluctuations — after all, it’s the fluctuations we’re primarily interested in [6] [7].  We finish this customer-centric block with the number of customers and the net promoter score (NPS) of your primary buyer persona [8].

Moving to the next block we start by showing the ending period quota-carrying sales reps (QCRs) and code-writing developers (DEVs).  These are critical numbers because they are, in a sense, the two engines of the SaaS airplane and they’re often the two areas where you fall furthest behind in your hiring.  Finally, we keep track of total employees, an area where high-growth companies often fall way behind, and employee satisfaction either via NPS or an engagement score. [9]

Slide 3:  P&L and Cash Metrics

slide 3 newYour next (and final [10]) key metrics slide should include metrics from the P&L and about cash.

We start with revenue split by license vs. professional services and do the math for the reader on the mix — I think a typical enterprise SaaS company should run between 10% and 20% services revenue.  We then show gross margins on both lines of business, so we can see if our subscription margins are normal (70% to 80%) and to see if we’re losing money in services and to what extent [11].

We then show the three major opex lines as a percent of revenue, so we can see the trend and how it’s converging.  These are commonly benchmarked numbers so I’m showing them in % of revenue form in the summary, but in the underlying sheet you can ungroup to find actual dollars.

Moving to the final block, we show cashflow from operations (i.e., burn rate) as well as ending cash which, depending on your favorite metaphor is either the altimeter of the SaaS plane or the amount of oxygen left in the scuba tank.  We then show Rule of 40 Score a popular measure of balancing growth vs. profitability [12].  We conclude with CAC Payback Period, a popular compound measure among VCs, that I could have put on the operating metrics but put here because you need several P&L metrics to build it.

I encourage you to take these three slides as a starting point and make them your own, aligning with your strategy — but keeping the key ideas of what and how to present them to your board.

You can download the spreadsheet here.

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Notes

[1] I do believe showing a balance is important to avoid getting labeled as having a half-empty or hall-full perspective.

[2] I am certainly not anti-visualization or anti-chart.  However, most people don’t make good ones so I’d take a table numbers over almost any chart I’ve ever seen in a board meeting.  Yes, there is a time and a place for powerful visualizations but, e.g., presenting single numbers as dials wastes space without adding value.

[3] Kind of a more demanding CAC ratio, calculated on net new ARR as opposed simply to new ARR.  For public companies you have to calculate that way because you don’t know new and churn ARR.  For private ones, I like staying pure and keeping CAC the measure of what it costs to add a $1 of ARR to the bucket, regardless of whether it stays in for a long time or quickly leaks out.

[4] Did sales have a bad quarter getting new logos, did account management fail at expansion ARR, or did customer success let too much churn leak out in the form of failed or shrinking renewals?  You can’t tell from this one number.

[5] There are a lot of judgement calls here in what math you for the reader vs. bloating the spreadsheet.  For things that split in two and add to 100% I often present only one (e.g., % upsell) because the other is trivial to calculate.  I chose to do the math on new ARR YoY growth because I think that’s the best single measure of sales effectiveness.  (Plan performance would be second, but is subject to negotiation and gaming.  Raw growth is a purer measure of performance in some sense.)

[6] Plus, if I want to smooth something, I can select sections in the underlying spreadsheet using the status bar to get averages and/or do my own calculations.  Smoothing something is way easier than un-smoothing it.

[7] Problems are hard to hide in this format anyway because churn ARR is clearly listed in the first block.

[8] Time your quarterly NPS survey so that fresh data arrives in time for your post-quarter ops reviews (aka, QBRs) and the typically-ensuing post-quarter board meeting.

[9] Taking a sort of balanced scorecard of financial, customer, and employee measures.

[10] Before handing off to the team for select departmental review, where your execs will present their own metrics.

[11] Some SaaS companies have heavily negative services gross margins, to the point where investors may want to move those expenses to another department, such as sales (ergo increasing the CAC) or subscription COGS (ergo depressing subscription margins), depending on what the services team is doing.

[12] With the underlying measures (revenue growth, free cashflow margin) available in the sheet as grouped data that’s collapsed in this view.

Will Your CEO Search Produce the Best Candidate or the Least Objectionable?

I was talking to a founder friend of mine the other day, and she made a comment about her startup’s search for its first non-founder (aka, “professional”) CEO.  She said the following about the nearly one-year recruiting process:

“Because every person in the search process had veto power, the process was inadvertently designed to go slowly and not produce the best candidate.  We passed on plenty of candidates superior to the person we eventually hired because someone had a problem with them and we assumed we’d find someone better in the future.  Eventually, the combination of search fatigue with dwindling cash compelled us to act so we locked in to the best person we had in-process at the time.  In effect, the process wasn’t designed to hire the most qualified candidate, but the least objectionable one.”

Character Ceo Talking From Tribune Set Vector

In this case the failed process was catastrophic.  The candidate they selected took the company in a different direction and my friend the founder was pushed out a few months later.

Here are some thoughts on how to create a CEO search process that produces the best, as opposed to the least objectionable, candidate:

  • Set up a search committee that does not include the whole board, so you are not creating a process with a large number of people who have veto power.
  • Write down what you want in a candidate in the form of a must-have, nice-to-have list.  Don’t delegate writing the core of the job spec for your new CEO to an associate at your search firm, cutting and pasting from the last spec.
  • Be mindful about the sequencing and timing of candidates.  Ask to see calibration candidates first to get people warmed up.  Try to cluster candidates.  Try to have sure candidates see the search committee in a different orders.  Slow down highly-qualified early candidates and speed up highly-qualified late entrants.  Like it or not, timing matters enormously.
  • Check some references before passing candidates beyond the committee.  Do some blind reference checking before moving candidates to the next step in the process.  There’s no point in having the group falling in love with a candidate only to discover they have poor reputation or dubious claims on their resume.
  • Let candidates ask for additional interviews beyond a relatively small core team  instead of defining a process where every candidate automatically sees every board member and executive staffer.  You can learn a ton about candidates by who they ask, and don’t ask, to see.
  • Ask candidates to present their plans for the company.  While all of them should include 90 days of learning and assessment (think:  “seek first to understand”) before taking action, virtually any qualified and engaged candidate has an 80% developed plan in their mind, so ask them to share it with you.

On the Perils of Taking Advice from Successful Business People

One of the hardest things about running a startup is you’re never sure who to listen to.

Your board members own big stakes in the company, but that doesn’t automatically align them with you.  Your late-stage investors want low multiples on big numbers.  Your early-stage investors want big multiples on small numbers.  And they have their own specific needs driven by their funds and their partnerships.  Your rank-and-file employees own relatively small stakes which, ceteris paribus, should make them want you to swing for the fences — but, in these days of decade-to-liquidity, you may have employees so jaded on equity compensation that they’d just like to keep their well-paying jobs.

Your executive team wants to hit their targets, earn their bonuses, and maybe some of them are deeply motivated by winning in the market, but maybe not.  With a 0.5% to 1% share, a $500M exit can mean a $2.5M to $5.0M pop.  Maybe some would prefer to take the early exit, upgrade the house in Menlo Park, and go do it again somewhere else, as opposed to riding it out for the long term.

The idea that giving everyone some equity is a good one, but as I wrote nearly ten years ago, it’s quaint to think that doing so aligns everyone.

So, if you can’t really look inside the company, what then?  Well, if you’re like many, you look outside.  You might read books, subscribe to blogs, or listen to podcasts.  You might seek out advisors or create an advisory board.

In all such cases, you’ll be taking advice from business people who have gone before you, have had anywhere from some to considerable success, and interested in sharing their learnings with others.  You know, people like me [1].

Look, I’m not going to argue that getting advice from successful people is a bad idea — it certainly seems preferable to the alternative — but I am going to point out a few caveats, most of which aren’t obvious in my estimation:

  • Successful people don’t actually know what made them successful.  They know what they did.  They know it worked.  They have hunches and beliefs.  Causality, not so much.  Some of them can be quick to forget that, so you shouldn’t be [2].  There was no control group.  If Marc Benioff carried a rabbit’s foot, would you?
  • Too many successful people are rinse/repeat [3].  I’m frankly surprised by how many successful people are chomping at the bit to do exactly what worked for them at their last company with total disregard for whether it applies to yours.  Beware these folks.  Interview question:  so could you tell me about a situation where you wouldn’t do that?  It’s not foolproof because most will catch the hint, so this is really something you need to listen for before asking.  Do they diagnose-then-prescribe or prescribe without diagnosing?
  • Their situation was likely different from yours.  In fact, in the land of disruption, as Kelly Wright points out in this podcast, it almost certainly was.  Are you creating a new category without competition?  Are you in an over-funded next-big-thing category?  Are you competing against a big company transitioning product lines?  Are you trying to get people to buy something they don’t believe they need or pick among alternatives when they know they do?  Are you disrupting technology, business model, or both?  Are you filling a need that is in the midst of being created the rise of another category?

Should you listen to these people?  I think yes [4].  But try to find ones who have seen both success and failure, seen success in many situations (not just one), and who are thoughtful about a company’s specific situation, and approach the advisory process and their own prior success with humility.

# # #

[1] While I’d characterize my own success as towards the left of that spectrum, I am advising and/or have advised over 20 startups, some of them stunningly successful.

[2] One of my favorite quotes of this ilk is from former Harvard marketing professor, Theodore LevittNothing in business is so remarkable as the conflicting variety of success formulas offered by its numerous practitioners and professors.  And if, in the case of practitioners they’re not exactly “formulas,” they are explanations of “how we did it” implying with firm control over any fleeting tendencies toward modesty that “that’s how you ought to do it.”  Practitioners filled with pride and money turn themselves into prescriptive philosophers, filled mostly with hot air.

[3] By the way, “I made $1B doing it this way” is one of the more difficult arguments you’re probably wise not to take on.

[4] “Duh.”

Marketing Exists to Make Sales Easier

Many moons ago when I was young product marketing manager, I heard a new VP of Marketing speak at a marketing all-hands meeting.  He spoke with a kiwi accent and his name was Chris Greendale.  What he said were six words that changed my career:

Marketing exists to make sales easier

While this has clearly been a theme in Kellblog posts over the years, I realized that I’ve actually never done a dedicated post on it, despite having written reductionist mission statement posts for both professional services (“maximize ARR without losing money”) and human resources (“help managers manage”).

Being a math type, I love deriving things from first principles and this seemed the perfect first principle from which to derive marketing.  First, you hire a team to build your product.  Then, you hire a team to sell it.  The only reason you need marketing is to help the second team do its job better.

At my next job, I remember bumping into Larry, our fresh from the used-car lot VP of Business Development, who in frustration (as he often was), one day came to work with a bunch of t-shirts that looked something like this

Enterprise software is a two-engine plane and those two engines are quota-carrying salesreps (QCRs) who sell the software and storypoint-burning developers (DEVs) who write it [1].

Everyone else is “the help” — including marketing, finance, sales supporting roles (e.g., SCs, SDRs), engineering-supporting roles (e.g., QA, PM, TPM), customer service, and yes, the CEO.  The faster you understand this, in my humble opinion, the better.

And, while we’re in realization mode, the other thing to internalize is that it costs about twice as much to sell an enterprise software product as it does to build it.  Per KeyBanc, typical S&M spend is 45% of revenue and R&D runs about half that.

But back to the mantra, make sales easier.  Why did I like it so much?

First, it put marketing in its proper place.  At the time, there was something of a power struggle between sales and marketing, and CPG/brand management types were trying to argue that product marketing mangers should be the generals and that sales were just the foot-soldiers.  Looking both around me and at the P&L that just seemed wrong.  Maybe it worked in consumer products [2] but this was enterprise software.  Sales had all the budget and all the power to go with it.  We should help them and, ego aside, there’s nothing wrong with being a helper.

In fact, if you define your mission statement as “help” and remember that “help is defined in the mind of the recipient,” you’ve already gone a long way to aligning your sales and marketing.

Second, there was nothing written in stone that limited the scope of that help. Narrow thinking might limit marketing to a servile role.  That’s not my intent.  Help could take many forms, and while the primary form of requested help has evolved over time, help can include both the tactical and the strategic:

  • Giving sales qualified leads to work on.
  • Building training and tools that helps sales sell more.
  • Providing competitive information that helps win more deals.
  • Creating an ideal customer profile (ICP) that helps sales focus on the most winnable deals.
  • Building industry-specific messaging that helps sell in given verticals
  • Working with PM [3] to build product that is inherently more salable [4].
  • Corporate strategy development to put the company in the right markets with the right offerings.

When I say help, I don’t mean lowercase-h tactical help.  I mean help in all its forms, which can and should include the “tough love” form of help:  “I know you think you want that, but let me demonstrate that I’ve heard your request and now explain why I think it’s not a good idea.”

Being helpful doesn’t mean saying yes to everything.  I hearken back to Miracle on 34th Street whenever I’m drawn into this problem (quote adapted):

Kris Kringle:  No, but don’t you see, dear?  Some <salespeople> wish for things they couldn’t possibly use like real locomotives or B-29s.

If sales is asking you for a real locomotive or a B-29 you need to tell them.

For the rest of my marketing career, I took Greendale’s mantra and made it my own.  If sales were my customer and I were helping them, then:

  • We’d run sales satisfaction surveys to see how happy sales was with marketing and where they wanted us to invest and improve [5].
  • We’d make ourselves accountable.  One of the biggest stresses in the sales/marketing relationship was, to paraphrase an old joke, sales felt like the pig while marketing was the chicken.  We’d publish objectives, measure ourselves, and be honest about hits and misses.
  • We’d bring data to the party.  We’d leverage syndicated and custom research to try and made data-driven as opposed to opinion-driven decisions.
  • We’d stop back-seat drivers.  I’d remind anyone that got too uppity that “quotas are available” and they should go take one [6].
  • We wouldn’t be the marketing police, scolding people for using out-of-date materials.  If sales were using a deck we’d decommissioned quarters ago, our first response wouldn’t be “stop!” but “why?”
  • We’d market marketing.  We’d devote some time to internal marketing to let the sales organization know what we were doing and why.

We’d even do something that tested the limits of HR (particularly when I was in France).  I’d use the sales satisfaction survey to rank every customer-facing marketer on a matrix.

This gave me hard data on who sales knew in the department and what they thought of them.  If we’re going to make messaging for sales to present to customers, we’d better prepared to — and be good at — presenting it ourselves [7].

Overall, the mantra served me well, taking me from product marketing director to VP of product marketing to VP of corporate marketing to overall VP of marketing and a great run at Business Objects.  I’ve had plenty of people challenge me on it over the years — usually it’s because they understand it as purely tactical.  But it’s served me well and I encourage you to use it as your North Star in leading your marketing team.

After all, who doesn’t like help?

# # #

Notes

[1] You’d be wise to add those two figures to your one-page key metrics.  Somehow it’s always easier to hire the supporting staff than the “engine” staff, so keep an eye on the raw numbers of QCRs and DEVs and, for more fun, track their density in their respective organizations (QCRs/sales and DEVs/eng).

[2] Shout out to my daughter Stephanie who works in brand management on a consumer product and who can now inform me directly of how things work in that world — and it is different.

[3] PM = product management.

[4] Either in the sense of better solves the problem or in the tactical sense of wipes out competitive differentiation.

[5] One of my favorite results was the sales and SCs often wanted exactly the same thing, but that sales wanted it more (i.e., roughly the same priority curve but sales would rank everything even more important than the SCs).

[6] Most didn’t, but a few did, and some did remarkably well.

[7] We were probably a $100M company around the time we started this, so I’m not suggesting it for a 2-PMM startup.  And yes, I’d put myself on the matrix as well.